Pre-election opinion poll shows tight race between BNP and Jamaat for 2026 parliament election

A pre-election opinion poll conducted jointly by the International Institute for Law and Islam (IILM), Jago Foundation and Creative-A has revealed a close contest between Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami ahead of the 2026 national parliament election.

The survey was carried out from November 21 to December 20, 2025. A total of 22,174 voters from 295 parliamentary constituencies across all 64 districts participated. Stratified sampling was used to ensure representation by gender, urban-rural areas and demographic groups, with post-stratification weighting applied based on the 2022 national census.

According to the respondents, current voting intention for major parties stands as follows: Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) 34.7 percent, Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami 33.6 percent, independents (undecided) 17.0 percent, Jatiya Party (JaPa) 7.1 percent, Islami Andolon Bangladesh 3.1 percent and other parties 4.5 percent.

Among former Awami League voters, support has shifted with 43.2 percent favouring BNP and 40.8 percent leaning towards Jamaat-e-Islami.

BNP supporters cited the party's past experience and administrative capability as the main reason in 72.1 percent of cases. Support is stronger among voters aged 30-44 years (38.4 percent) and 45-59 years (37.4 percent). Farmers (42.6 percent) and labourers (40.6 percent) showed particularly strong backing for BNP.

Supporters of Jamaat-e-Islami primarily described the party as less corrupt (44.8 percent) and value-based honest (40.7 percent). The party enjoys highest support among 18-29 year olds (33.6 percent) and graduates (37.4 percent), gaining traction through digital and social media engagement with young and educated voters.

A notable 36.7 percent of Jatiya Party supporters mentioned the party's role in the July revolution as their primary reason.

The survey found 17 percent respondents still undecided. Among them, 30.1 percent said they do not trust any political party while 38.6 percent declined to give an opinion. This group could prove decisive in the final outcome.

The poll suggests the 2026 election will be a contest between pragmatic governance represented by BNP's experience and economic focus, and value-based governance represented by Jamaat's emphasis on integrity and religious appeal. A significant section of voters appears to seek institutional reform, corruption control and change inspired by the July uprising.

The findings were presented by Dr Ma Fuzul Kabir, Chairman, International Institute of Law and Islam; Professor Dr Mushtaq Khan, SOAS University of London; Dr A K M Wahidul Islam, De Montfort University; Dr Muhammad Asadullah, University of Regina; S M Faruk Mashrur, NewsCred; Professor Delara Chowdhury, Trinity Gonobishwabidyalay; and Md Z (Retd) Ahsan Amin, Centre for Community and Development Council.