Survey Links BNP to Welfare Agenda, Jamaat to Theocracy and Anti-India Positions

With the next general election date still uncertain, a new analysis of Innovision surveys from September 2025 and January 2026 shows sharp contrasts between likely BNP alliance and Jamaat alliance voters—even after matching respondents by gender, age, division, and income. The findings point to differing priorities on welfare, religion, regional geopolitics, founders’ legacies, gender equality, and media use.

Key takeaways

• Welfare vs faith: Saying a family card will shape their vote makes respondents more likely to back BNP. Saying Islamic governance matters and family cards do not makes them more likely to back Jamaat. Islamic governance shows no detectable effect on BNP support.
• India–Pakistan tilt: Wanting distance from India boosts the chance of voting Jamaat; it barely affects BNP. Wanting distance from Pakistan boosts BNP support and drops Jamaat support to zero. Preferring the same or better Pakistan ties raises support for both BNP and Jamaat versus having no stance.
• Leader Thermometrics: The more a voter likes Sheikh Mujib, the more likely they are to withhold their preference. The more they like Ziaur Rahman, the likelier they are to back BNP. Liking Mujib or Zia lowers the odds of backing Jamaat.
• Gender equality: Strong agreement with equal rights for women and men raises the likelihood of a BNP vote and lowers it for Jamaat.
• News habits: Compared with those who follow no politics, heavier news consumers are less likely to back BNP; those consuming over three hours of news daily are more likely to withhold a preference.

A Note on Methodology: To ensure the highest level of accuracy for this 13th National Election survey, researchers applied a 95% Confidence Interval with Robust Standard Errors.