BJP Set to Write History in West Bengal; Trinamool Faces Potential Exit After 15 Years

West Bengal is on the brink of a massive political transformation as early trends from the 2026 Assembly Election results suggest a historic "saffron sweep." For the first time since Independence, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears set to form the government in the state, potentially ending the Trinamool Congress’s (TMC) 15-year tenure.

The counting of votes for the 294-member assembly began today, Monday (May 4), following a high-stakes election conducted in two phases on April 23 and 29. This election was notably the first held after a significant "Special Intensive Revision" (SIR) of the voters' list, which had already become a major point of political contention.

The Battle of Bhabanipur

The spotlight remains firmly fixed on the Bhabanipur constituency, where Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is locked in a fierce battle against her former lieutenant turned arch-rival, Suvendu Adhikari. Adhikari, the current Leader of Opposition, challenged the Chief Minister on her home turf, echoing their 2021 face-off in Nandigram. Early trends indicate a neck-and-neck struggle in this prestige seat, which could define the political future of both leaders.

Mamata Banerjee Reaches Out to Workers

As the numbers began to favor the BJP, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee released a video message addressed to her party workers. In the message, she reportedly urged her supporters to maintain peace and remain resilient regardless of the final tally. The TMC, which won a landslide 215 seats in 2021, is now struggling to reach the magic majority figure of 148.

Shifting Dynamics and New Players

While the BJP and TMC remain the primary combatants, the 2026 polls saw several new dynamics:

• The Humayun Kabir Factor: Suspended TMC MLA Humayun Kabir’s new political outfit, known for its focus on religious identity and regional issues, is being closely watched for its impact on traditional vote banks.

• The Left-Congress Alliance: After being reduced to zero seats in the 2021 assembly, the Left Front and Congress are fighting for survival, though early leads suggest the contest remains largely bipolar.

Interestingly, most exit polls had predicted a hung assembly or a razor-thin margin, failing to capture the decisive "wave" that current trends seem to reflect. The BJP, which bagged 77 seats in the last election to become the main opposition, now appears to have breached the 148-seat threshold required for a simple majority.

If these trends hold, the result will mark the end of an era in Bengal politics, shifting the state from the Trinamool's grassroots-focused "Ma, Mati, Manush" ideology toward the BJP's platform of "Ashol Poriborton" (Real Change) and development. Final results are expected to be confirmed by the Election Commission by late tonight.