Early Split in UP Bangladesh: What’s Next for the Junayed–Rafe Group?

United People's Bangladesh (UPB), the political platform born from July's mass uprising, is showing signs of fracture within a year of its formation. Despite high expectations and promises, internal divisions have emerged over whether to remain a pressure group or transform into a full political party. Sources indicate one faction, led by founding convener Ali Ahsan Junayed and chief coordinator Rafe Salman Rifat, is inclined against immediate party formation. Meanwhile, chief organizer Naeem Ahmad is pushing ahead with preparations to launch a new political party.

UPB insiders say the original intent was to evolve the platform into a political party. Post-election, one group strongly favors forming a party soon, while another prefers maintaining it as a civil society force. This disagreement has created tension within the organization. A 'feasibility test' committee was formed to assess the viability of becoming a party, and its report reportedly recommended the transition. However, a significant portion of top leaders, including Junayed, disputes parts of the report or its timing.

A short message from Ali Ahsan Junayed to members reportedly suggested keeping UPB as a pressure group while allowing interested leaders to form or join a party. Naeem Ahmad is now moving forward with party formation preparations with like-minded members. An official announcement is expected soon.

If UPB splits, questions arise about Junayed, Rifat, and other top leaders' future paths—whether they will join an existing party or step back from politics. Reliable sources indicate a large section of UPB leadership—including former DU Shibir presidents Junayed and Rifat, member secretary Arefin Mohammad Hizbullah, spokesperson Shahrin Sultana Ira, and others—has a strong possibility of joining the National Citizens Party (NCP), the political party of July's uprising force.

NCP sources say the party, disappointed with its election performance, is now focusing on organizational expansion. Efforts are underway to bring back leaders who left earlier due to leadership disputes, including those from the Citizens Committee and UPB. Bringing Junayed, Rifat, and key UPB figures into NCP would significantly strengthen the party. The current division in UPB stems from the same leadership conflict that led to the split from the Citizens Committee during NCP's formation.

When contacted, UPB chief organizer Naeem Ahmad told The Daily Campus that there was always an aspiration to form a political party when UPB was created. After the national election, party formation became a clear goal for some. Currently, UPB has two opposing thoughts. One part supports party formation.

He said, “As a result, UPB will take the shape of a civil group. And a new political party will be formed. Preparations have already started, and a formal announcement will come soon based on the aspirations of July and reform that UPB was built upon.”

When asked about UPB leaders joining NCP, NCP joint convener Monira Sharmin told The Daily Campus that no discussion has taken place in the party forum on this matter. Plans to expand the party and unite various platforms have existed before, though talks with Gono Odhikar Parishad and UPB did not materialize due to various reasons. The possibility in the future cannot be ruled out.

She said, “If unification comes up now, it will be decided based on the opinion of the executive committee and general members. But if we can truly unite, strengthening centrist politics together would be very positive for Bangladesh's politics.”

No formal statement from UPB convener Ali Ahsan Junayed was available on this matter.