Is the Global Middle Class Shrinking?

The narrative that the global middle class is disappearing is common, especially in developed nations facing wage stagnation. But is this true worldwide? The World Bank projects the global middle class will grow to 4.4 billion by 2030, up from 3.8 billion in 2020, driven by rapid growth in Asia, particularly China and India. This contradicts claims of decline, as McKinsey estimates 88% of the next billion middle-class entrants will come from Asia by 2030.

However, the picture varies regionally. In OECD countries, Pew Research notes the middle class shrank slightly from 1990 to 2018 due to rising inequality and automation. In contrast, sub-Saharan Africa’s middle class grew by 10% from 2000 to 2020, per Brookings. A 2025 Economist article highlights that global middle-class spending power is rising, fueling economic growth, but warns of vulnerabilities like debt and job insecurity in emerging markets. While the global middle class is expanding, regional disparities and inequality mean the benefits are uneven, requiring targeted policies to ensure inclusive growth.